It was two months ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
