A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
